Smart Money Moves

Article by Tony George

No matter what you are betting on, players always want to know what the “smart” players are doing. Sports Bettors always want to know where the smart money is. What really is smart money you ask? Most people need to track opening lines, and the movement the lines makes early in the week, not later in the week to see where the real smart money is! The late week moves are NOT smart money, it is public money, and the public is most often, as a whole, wrong.

Lets take a look at the 2001 NFL football season, going back a couple of years. In that year the Las Vegas line, on 197 games, moved a minimum of one-half point or more from the opening to closing line. If you had bet teams that benefited from the line movement you would have had 86 wins, 102 losses, and 9 pushes. If you had bet against the public line move, you would have been just the opposite, and would have been at 54.3% in winners. Not that huge of a number in winners, but profitable.

Using all the information, one can assume the following; bet against the late line moves if you are tracking line movement, because that is NOT the smart money moving the line. Most “wiseguys”, or smart money players will play early in the week on opening lines, then wait for the line moves by the public, and come back hard on the other side for a “middle” if the line moves enough. Tracking line moves later in the week and going against them is more profitable than going with them, because the public is driving the line.

What this tells the average sports bettor is that tracking line moves and going against the public should not be your only handicapping tool. It should serve as an indicator as you follow the line movements during the week with your favorite selections. If your play has the attention and interest of the public, and the line is moving, you may find opportunity in holding off that selection and taking a closer look at your choice.